Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 52737.012781 55907.527284 59086.195463 62509.540984 66089.598928 69720.396886 73678.422425
2024-10-20 47270.734406 52074.489310 57035.194633 62532.376888 68445.062011 74605.009255 81499.273692
2024-10-27 43228.969447 49099.823590 55305.883311 62337.901840 70066.960812 78285.726759 87668.226708
2024-11-03 40945.076953 47694.830019 54968.296367 63360.297181 72746.285528 82891.137574 94655.110292
2024-11-10 38950.228784 46392.701729 54548.927142 64108.804802 74962.976504 86859.716511 100839.865840
2024-11-17 37038.060637 45023.114092 53909.318311 64474.129513 76632.222209 90125.015376 106168.542144
2024-11-24 35141.822262 43542.540945 53026.394051 64451.684580 77764.554383 92708.282359 110668.624035
2024-12-01 33648.026126 42436.818802 52491.048549 64751.121227 79199.537524 95586.346924 115472.435749
2024-12-08 32157.476351 41252.018528 51788.537291 64785.439128 80267.063782 97996.955061 119708.338609
2024-12-15 31290.155904 40763.456906 51865.194847 65701.836895 82342.410177 101564.999477 125293.749801
2024-12-22 29921.457911 39599.553370 51074.305179 65526.612981 83076.214477 103525.401834 128971.231326
2024-12-29 29296.992938 39318.921898 51324.479915 66585.470452 85274.360175 107216.282882 134710.115505
2025-01-05 28396.106544 38671.498394 51113.818660 67082.229350 86809.024823 110150.405323 139607.145495
2025-01-12 27331.174457 37776.716340 50563.168725 67131.878087 87779.819207 112401.109748 143693.715099
2025-01-19 26217.755277 36776.086915 49840.626333 66931.257910 88413.233527 114224.004298 147255.531004
2025-01-26 25765.559511 36608.727033 50151.791168 68014.412961 90633.163830 117986.950797 153200.120480
2025-02-02 25214.085478 36286.673390 50245.504675 68806.720457 92481.891087 121296.696253 158605.548087
2025-02-09 24519.445617 35747.889685 50036.938398 69193.322594 93806.770574 123955.362884 163216.489054
2025-02-16 23689.692691 34998.569582 49528.344928 69169.583356 94592.729193 125933.655722 166983.729654
2025-02-23 23045.259615 34476.201324 49296.142425 69486.407237 95801.322283 128436.640561 171412.406782
2025-03-02 22321.045807 33819.899115 48864.681505 69522.716980 96634.421940 130459.968049 175242.295431
2025-03-09 22000.331799 33707.157930 49146.770954 70492.213231 98674.852063 134019.170382 181028.875427
2025-03-16 21251.073699 32973.117538 48573.064103 70306.848219 99196.535059 135638.452448 184358.829109